In the first quarter of 2025, Uzbekistan’s public debt increased significantly, rising by $2.22bn to reach a total of $42.43bn as of April 1, according to the Ministry of Economy and Finance.
During January to March, sovereign liabilities grew by 5.52%, while the year-on-year increase was 20%, adding $7.08bn. Despite the rise in debt, the government debt-to-GDP ratio improved, falling from 35% to 33.5%, a decrease of approximately 150 basis points.
The majority of Uzbekistan’s borrowings remain external, accounting for around 84% of the total debt. External debt expanded by $1.83bn (5.43%) during the quarter, reaching $35.57bn. Domestic debt grew by a smaller margin, increasing by $389mn (6%) to $6.87bn. Over the year, external debt rose by $6.09bn (+20.68%), while internal debt increased by $988mn (+16.79%).
Within the external debt portfolio, U.S. dollar-denominated loans dominate at $24.61bn, although their share declined from 71.47% to 69.24% in the first quarter. The euro and Japanese yen follow, representing 9.02% and 7.73%. Euro-denominated borrowings more than doubled over the past year, rising from $1.34bn to $3bn.
Domestic debt is primarily denominated in Uzbek soums ($3.46bn) and U.S. dollars ($3.13bn). The amount borrowed in the national currency increased by $390mn in 1Q25, raising its share of domestic debt from 47.5% to 50.37%. Meanwhile, dollar-denominated domestic debt fell by $5mn, reducing its share from 48.2% to 45.61%.
Nearly half of the external debt, $16.88bn (47%), is directed toward budget support. Key sectors funded through borrowings include electric power ($3.94bn, 11%), oil and gas ($1.7bn, 5%), coal ($238mn, 1%), agriculture and water management ($3.04bn, 9%), housing and utilities ($2.9bn, 8%), and transport ($2.85bn, 8%).
International financial institutions are the largest creditors, holding $19.26bn or 54% of Uzbekistan’s external debt. The main lenders include the World Bank (WB) with $7.74bn (22%), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) with $7.44bn (21%), the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) with $1.65bn (5%), the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) with $932mn (3%), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with $650mn (2%).
Foreign government financial institutions account for 30% of external sovereign debt ($10.62bn), with major contributors including China (Eximbank, China Development Bank, etc.) at $3.64bn (10%), Japan (Japan International Cooperation Agency, etc.) at $3.07bn (9%), France (French Development Agency) at $1.02bn (3%), South Korea (Eximbank, Economic Development and Cooperation Fund, etc.) at $745mn (2%), and Saudi Arabia (Saudi Fund for Development) at $136mn.
Additionally, investors hold 16% of external debt, with international bonds increasing by over $1.5bn in 1Q to $5.66bn.
Uzbekistan’s public debt is expected to reach $45.1bn by the end of 2025, making up 36.7% of the projected $125bn GDP. The government plans to borrow $5.5bn externally this year, with $3bn for budget support and $2.5bn for investment projects.
In 2026, GDP is forecast to surpass $140bn, and if economic conditions remain stable, the debt-to-GDP ratio may rise to 37.9%, pushing total public debt above $53bn.
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